S&P 500 (SPX) held up well into the opening bell, considering two main events of the day – Kevin Warsh's hearing and the two-week ceasefire expiration, with all bellicose statements returning so as to force Iran‘s hand. That didn‘t happen, and the Iranians chose not to negotiate when Trump‘s blockade remains in place. Also, what their political representation left flying on Friday (soothing market-oriented talk as if a breakthrough was reached, while that didn‘t happen), gave way to a more typically enforced Hormuz blockade, coupled with showing preparation to return to war.
I would have thought that at least some predictable elements of the Warsh hearing (independence, etc.) would be factored in before they happened, but it took the shape of additionally introduced uncertainty, sending markets risk-off way. To crown (the intraday deterioration), on failure of the second round of negotiations to even happen, we were treated to Trump‘s unilateral ceasefire extension serving to return the markets to risk-on within minutes… neither war, nor peace, the showdown goes on as the dollar kept half of its risk-off gains on the day.
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