Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 20K

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending September 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 332,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 310,000 to 312,000. The 4-week moving average was 335,750, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 339,500 to 340,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.9 percent for the week ending September 4, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous week's revised rate. The previous week's rate was revised up by 0.1 from 2.0 to 2.1 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 4 was 2,665,000, a decrease of 187,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since March 14, 2020 when it was 1,770,000. The previous week's level was revised up 69,000 from 2,783,000 to 2,852,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,807,500, a decrease of 50,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 21, 2020 when it was 2,071,750. The previous week's average was revised up by 17,250 from 2,840,250 to 2,857,500. [See full report]

This morning's seasonally adjusted 332K new claims, up 20K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 330K.

Here is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend.

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

Here's a copy of the above chart, but zoomed in, so the COVID spike isn't as prominent. We'll be adding a few more of these "zoomed in" looks in the coming weeks.

The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data.

Here's a look at each year's claims going back to 2009.

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see this regularly updated piece The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims, and the Business Cycle. Here is a snapshot from that analysis.