Weekly Unemployment Claims: Up 16K

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending September 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 351,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 332,000 to 335,000. The 4-week moving average was 335,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 335,750 to 336,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent for the week ending September 11, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's revised rate. The previous week's rate was revised up by 0.1 from 1.9 to 2.0 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 11 was 2,845,000, an increase of 131,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 49,000 from 2,665,000 to 2,714,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,804,000, a decrease of 15,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 21, 2020 when it was 2,071,750. The previous week's average was revised up by 12,250 from 2,807,500 to 2,819,750. [See full report]

This morning's seasonally adjusted 351K new claims, up 16K from the previous week's revised figure, was below the Investing.com forecast of 320K.

Here is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend.

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

Here's a copy of the above chart, but zoomed in, so the COVID spike isn't as prominent. We'll be adding a few more of these "zoomed in" looks in the coming weeks.

The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data.

Here's a look at each year's claims going back to 2009.

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see this regularly updated piece The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims, and the Business Cycle. Here is a snapshot from that analysis.