Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 29K, Better Than Forecast

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending August 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 348,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 375,000 to 377,000. The 4-week moving average was 377,750, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 396,250 to 396,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent for the week ending August 7, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 7 was 2,820,000, a decrease of 79,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since March 14, 2020 when it was 1,770,000. The previous week's level was revised up 33,000 from 2,866,000 to 2,899,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,998,750, a decrease of 110,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 21, 2020 when it was 2,071,750. The previous week's average was revised up by 8,250 from 3,101,000 to 3,109,250. [See full report]

This morning's seasonally adjusted 348K new claims, down 29K from the previous week's revised figure, was better than the Investing.com forecast of 363K.

Here is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend.

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data.

Here's a look at each year's claims going back to 2009.

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see this regularly updated piece The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims, and the Business Cycle. Here is a snapshot from that analysis.