Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 17K

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending February 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level initial claims was 232,000, a decrease of was revised up by 1,000 from 248,000 to 249,000. The 4week moving average was 236,250, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 243,250 to 243,500.

The advance seasonally adjust ed insured unemployment rate was 1.1 percent for the week ending February 12, unchanged from the previous week's revised rate. The previous week's rate was revised down by 0.1 from 1.2 to 1.1 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unem ployment during the week ending February 12 was 1,476,000, a decrease of 112,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since March 14, 1970 when it was 1,456,000. The previous week's level was revised dow 1,593,000 to 1,588,000. The 4n by 5,000 from week moving average was 1,576,000, a decrease of 49,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since June 30, 1973 when it was 1,570,000. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,250 from 1,626,250 to 1,625,000. [See full report]

This morning's seasonally adjusted 232K new claims, down 17K from the previous week's figure, was below the Investing.com forecast of 235K.

Here is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend.

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

Here's a copy of the above chart, but zoomed in, so the COVID spike isn't as prominent. We'll be adding a few more of these "zoomed in" looks in the coming weeks.

The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data.

Here's a look at a sample of year's claims going back to 2009.

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see this regularly updated piece The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims and the Business Cycle. Here is a snapshot from that analysis.