Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 16K

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending February 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 238,000 to 239,000. The 4 week moving average was 253,250, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 255,000 to 255,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending Jan unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted uary 29, insured unemployment during the week ending January 29 was 1,621,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was rev ised down by 7,000 from 1,628,000 to 1,621,000. The 4week moving average was 1,634,500, an increase of 16,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,750 from 1,619,750 to 1,618,000. [See full report]

This morning's seasonally adjusted 223K new claims, down 16K from the previous week's figure, was below the Investing.com forecast of 230K.

Here is a close look at the data over the decade (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend.

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

Here's a copy of the above chart, but zoomed in, so the COVID spike isn't as prominent. We'll be adding a few more of these "zoomed in" looks in the coming weeks.

The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data.

Here's a look at a sample of year's claims going back to 2009.

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see this regularly updated piece The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims, and the Business Cycle. Here is a snapshot from that analysis.