XAUUSD: BUY 4330.00, SL 4300.00, TP 4397.50
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Gold starts the week following a strong rally, as a weaker US employment report reduced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike and supported lower US Treasury yields. The main test will be the July US inflation data. Moderate figures could sustain demand for gold, while stronger price pressures may renew pressure through interest rate expectations and the US dollar.
XAUUSD has already gained more than 7% over the previous week, so further upside requires fresh confirmation. Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Persian Gulf continues to support demand for defensive assets, while the current reassessment of Federal Reserve policy keeps the baseline buying scenario intact.
Trading idea: BUY 4330.00, SL 4300.00, TP 4397.50
#SP500: BUY 7785, SL 7745, TP 7885
#SP500 starts the week after a new record close, supported by lower expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike and strong corporate results. The earnings season is nearing its end, while profit growth remains solid, helping sustain demand for equities following gains in recent sessions.
The key risk will be US inflation. A strong reading could push US Treasury yields higher and increase the cost of capital. If the inflation data do not reinforce concerns about higher rates, the combination of resilient earnings and softer Federal Reserve expectations should keep the upward scenario for the index in place.
Trading idea: BUY 7785, SL 7745, TP 7885
#BRENT: BUY 84.40, SL 82.40, TP 88.80
Brent starts the week recovering amid uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic remains restricted and the terms for fully reopening the route have yet to be agreed. This factor supports the risk premium and keeps the threat of supply disruptions relevant for the oil market.
Supply remains a limiting factor: OPEC+ agreed to increase production quotas for September, while the latest EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories. However, until there is confirmed progress on shipping, disruption risks remain the main short-term driver, keeping the baseline buying scenario in place.
Trading idea: BUY 84.40, SL 82.40, TP 88.80
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