XAUUSD: BUY 4100.00, SL 4065.00, TP 4187.50
Gold begins the week on a stronger footing following a pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran. Lower oil prices have eased inflation concerns, supported bonds, and put pressure on the US dollar. For XAUUSD, this reduces the risk of a further rise in real yields, although the easing of geopolitical tensions limits defensive demand.
The Federal Reserve’s decision will be the main event of the week. The market expects the policy rate to remain unchanged but will closely assess the central bank’s willingness to tighten policy further. If oil remains below its recent highs and Treasury yields do not resume their advance, the fundamental backdrop will continue to favor a recovery in gold.
Trading idea: BUY 4100.00, SL 4065.00, TP 4187.50
#SP500: BUY 7490, SL 7440, TP 7615
The US equity market enters the week supported by lower oil prices and easing inflation risks. This reduces pressure on Treasury yields and borrowing costs while improving the environment for companies sensitive to consumer spending. However, elevated equity valuations leave #SP500 highly dependent on corporate earnings.
The Federal Reserve’s decision and earnings releases from major technology companies will test current profit expectations. Strong results and controlled spending on artificial intelligence could restore demand for the sector, while restrictive signals from the central bank may limit the upside. The decline in the energy risk premium supports the buying scenario.
Trading idea: BUY 7490, SL 7440, TP 7615
#BRENT: SELL 91.80, SL 94.30, TP 86.80
Brent begins the week lower following a pause in US and Iranian strikes and renewed diplomatic efforts. The reduction in the immediate threat to supply is eroding the geopolitical premium after last week’s strong advance. However, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, which may keep volatility elevated.
A sustained recovery in oil prices would require fresh evidence of supply disruptions or a breakdown in negotiations. As long as regional exports continue and the risk of a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy weighs on demand expectations, the base-case weekly scenario allows for a further decline in #BRENT.
Trading idea: SELL 91.80, SL 94.30, TP 86.80
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