XAUUSD: SELL 4015.00, SL 4050.00, TP 3927.50
Gold begins the week near $4,015 per ounce, remaining under pressure as rising oil prices lead markets to reassess Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Higher energy costs are increasing inflation risks, supporting US Treasury yields, and raising the opportunity cost of holding the metal.
Geopolitical tensions continue to sustain demand for defensive assets, but this has not yet offset the impact of the US dollar and expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer. If the oil price shock continues to support US yields, the fundamental scenario allows for a further decline in XAUUSD.
Trading idea: SELL 4015.00, SL 4050.00, TP 3927.50
#SP500: SELL 7505, SL 7555, TP 7380
The #SP500 enters the week following a decline in the technology sector, while higher oil prices are reviving concerns about inflation and borrowing costs. Rising US Treasury yields could place additional pressure on company valuations, particularly in sectors that are sensitive to financing costs.
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Major corporate earnings could support the index if results confirm strong profit expectations. However, high market concentration and the correction in semiconductor stocks increase the risk of disappointment. If oil prices and US yields remain elevated, the baseline scenario continues to point lower.
Trading idea: SELL 7505, SL 7555, TP 7380
#BRENT: BUY 90.30, SL 87.80, TP 95.30
Brent begins the week above $90 per barrel following a sharp increase in risks to Middle Eastern oil supplies. Reduced shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and tensions surrounding Iranian ports are increasing the likelihood of disruptions, keeping the geopolitical risk premium as the market’s main driver.
The advance has already been substantial, increasing the risk of a correction if there are signs of de-escalation or a normalization of shipping activity. Nevertheless, restricted transit capacity and low inventories continue to provide fundamental support for oil. Until supply risks ease, the priority remains a cautious upside scenario for #BRENT.
Trading idea: BUY 90.30, SL 87.80, TP 95.30
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