Weekly Overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 03 July 2026

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FreshForexTeam



XAUUSD: SELL 4065.00, SL 4095.00, TP 3975.00

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Gold begins the week near $4,060 per ounce, but rising expectations of a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy are limiting its upside. Inflation concerns and higher oil prices have led the market to reassess the probability of a rate hike, while the US dollar remains supported. This combination is unfavourable for a non-yielding asset such as gold.

Military risks in the Persian Gulf may support demand for defensive assets, but they have not yet outweighed the effect of higher US funding costs. Labour market data will be an important test for interest rate expectations. As long as this scenario remains intact, a downside move in XAUUSD appears more justified.

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Trading idea: SELL 4065.00, SL 4095.00, TP 3975.00


#SP500: SELL 7440, SL 7500, TP 7260

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The US stock market enters the week after the S&P 500 declined to 7,354 points and semiconductor shares came under pressure. Investors are assessing when investment in AI infrastructure will begin to translate into stronger earnings. This makes the index more sensitive to revisions in corporate forecasts and weakens support from the largest technology companies.

The interest rate factor also remains important. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged while noting elevated inflation, and the market is awaiting labour market data. The rebound in futures does not remove the index’s vulnerability. Without convincing signals on earnings and inflation, the baseline scenario for #SP500 remains to the downside.

Trading idea: SELL 7440, SL 7500, TP 7260


#BRENT: BUY 72.60, SL 70.60, TP 78.60

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Brent starts the week near $72.6 per barrel, with uncertainty over supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remaining the main driver. Renewed exchanges of strikes between the United States and Iran have again slowed shipping activity. The market therefore remains uncertain whether exports from the Persian Gulf can quickly return to normal volumes, which supports the risk premium.

A temporary agreement to halt attacks and isolated cargo shipments may limit further gains. However, tanker queues, damaged infrastructure and production disruptions continue to create a risk of tighter supply. Under these conditions, the weekly outlook for #BRENT remains tilted to the upside.

Trading idea: BUY 72.60, SL 70.60, TP 78.60


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