Weekly Forex Forecast: Major Markets Show Mixed Signals Around Key Support And Resistance Levels

USD/CAD

The U.S. dollar has fallen significantly against the Canadian dollar late in the week, as the 1.4250 level continues to be a significant barrier. By pulling back the way it has, it is reaffirming that it is a level worth watching as we continue to see a lot of questions asked about interest rates around the world.

It is worth noting that the U.S. dollar has lost some of its appeal later in the week as rates dropped. At this point, though, I still treat this as more or less a pullback, not necessarily a complete turnaround. We may have a week or two of weakness in this pair, but there are plenty of buyers underneath.

EUR/USD

The euro initially fell during the week only to turn around and bounce to form a bit of a hammer. This is a market that I am watching very closely because I am still bearish on the euro in general, with the interest rate differential favoring the United States. We also have plenty of problems with French fiscal concerns and the bond market.

With that being the case, this market continues to see a lot of overhead, but a short-term recovery might be in the cards. I will be looking at the 1.1350 level as a potential resistance barrier and market memory pushing the market back down.

Gold

The gold market has fallen a bit during the trading week, only to turn around and show signs of life. That being said, the $4,200 level is the beginning of a significant support and demand zone that extends all the way down to the $4,000 level.

If the market were to turn around and break down below the $4,000 level, it opens up the possibility of further downward pressure. That would more likely than not be accompanied by stronger U.S. yields. But right now, we are seeing them roll over, so it lines up for a potential bounce here.

USD/MXN

The U.S. dollar rallied during the week against the Mexican peso, but it continues to fight around the 18.50 level, an area that has been important multiple times. Therefore, it will be interesting to see. We are right at the 200-week EMA and an area that has been important previously.

So the question now is whether we get some type of breakout here, or are we going to fall? With U.S. interest rates rolling over this week, it will be interesting to see. This could end up being a decent short if those rates continue to drift lower.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin market has fallen during the week as we continue to see a bit of correction in this market. Nonetheless, this is a market that remains very noisy, and it will be interesting to see if the 50-week EMA can continue to offer support for Bitcoin. We had recently broken above the crucial $81,000 level, and now it looks like that market could be seeing a bit of support in that general vicinity.

If we were to break down below the $80,000 level, though, that could be a very negative turn of events. With this, I am looking at this as a market that could potentially see a bit of volatility here because of the importance of the region. If we break above the $90,000 level, we could see quite a bit of follow-through.

GBP/USD

The British pound spent the week bouncing from the bottom of a larger consolidation range near the 1.3150 level, where we had seen buyers going all the way back to April.

A rally from here could send this market looking toward the 1.3650 level, but I am not quite ready to get that aggressive to the upside yet. After all, interest rates in the United States continue to be elevated despite the fact that they are rolling over.

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 had a bad week as semiconductors continue to see a little bit of selling, mainly due to the idea that financing could become quite a bit tighter for the artificial intelligence sector.

Nonetheless, we will have to wait and see whether or not we can stay above the $28,000 level, an area that, for me at least, is the floor in the market. If we turn around and break back above the $30,250 level, then it is possible that we could go much higher.

Silver

Silver fell during the week, testing the $55 level. The $55 level is an area of significant market memory where it has been both support and resistance. With falling yields, you would have thought that silver may have performed a little bit better. That being said, silver remains a bit weak, and it remains a market that, quite frankly, I do not feel comfortable getting too bullish with.

That being said, we are sitting on a major support region that extends down to the $55 level. If we were to break down below there, then we could see another $10 drop to the downside. If we can clear $60 to the upside, then it could be very bullish.