Copper
Copper markets have been all over the place during the week as we continue to bounce around the $6.50 level. That being said, this is the first time in over a month that we have broken below there, so it has put a little bit of negativity back into this market.
The question at this point isn't so much the trend. It is whether or not momentum can return on a daily close above the $6.50 level and become much more constructive on copper. Longer term, I still think we go much higher. After all, the AI and electrification trades will both demand more copper.
Of course, recent labor disputes in Chile have added some problems on the supply side as well. I remain bullish, but I need to see that barrier cleared.
DAX
The German DAX had a negative week, but when looked at on the weekly chart, it's easy to see that we are simply consolidating. We did close at the bottom of the range, which is something to pay close attention to.
Ultimately, it looks like there is a certain amount of support. Near the €25,000 level, there is support that should be paid close attention to. Ultimately, if this market bounces from here, it more likely than not retains its neutral shape. A breakdown below the 50-week EMA at the €24,713 level could lead to further selling.
Germany still has to worry about energy over the winter, though.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 has had a fairly ugly week. We tried to get back some of the losses from late last week, but gave those back. The 29,000 level looks to be an area of some support.
Breaking down below there could send fresh selling pressure into the market. There does seem to be a demand zone extending all the way down to the 28,000 level. Ultimately, an ugly look, but not a disastrous one.
EUR/USD
The euro initially tried to rally for the week, but found trouble at the 200-week EMA, which is subsequently the high from the previous week.
Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see US rates falling. At the same time, there are a lot of concerns about energy reaching Europe this winter. Furthermore, we also have to keep an eye on European inflation. It is not a good sign that energy has become such a major problem there.
The ECB could raise rates in theory, but ultimately, this isn't persistent inflation. This is a specific problem. I still remain bearish on the euro.
GBP/USD
The British pound rallied during the course of the trading week as we continue to see the overall range play out, with the bullish pressure of the British pound during the last week proving the 1.32 level to be massive support.
The market breaking above the 50-week EMA and the 1.34 level at one point. Short-term pullbacks should continue to be buying opportunities if the behavior plays out the same way it has over the last seven or eight months. Ultimately, that could lead the British pound to go looking toward the 1.3650 level, but we'll have to watch US yields and see whether or not they continue to fall.
Bitcoin
The Bitcoin market initially rallied during the course of the trading week, but found resistance above the $82,500 level. We are currently consolidating just above the 50-week EMA in what could be classified as neutral market moves at best.
Rates falling in the United States should be helping Bitcoin. Quite frankly, it looks like it's just killing time trying to determine where to go from this major market level. With that being said, I remain neutral on Bitcoin, but will follow price. A move above the $90,000 level would be intriguing for long positions.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 tried to recover and, in fact, gained most of the losses back during the week, but then turned around and fell apart. This is a market that continues to see the 7,800 level as a major barrier.
If we can break above there. Then the market can truly get to moving to the upside with rapidity again, and the 8,000 level could be your next target. If we pull back from here, I look at the 7,200 level as a major floor.
USD/CAD
The US dollar has collapsed against the Canadian dollar during the past week, but really, at this point in time, we still find ourselves in an area that could find a certain amount of support near the 1.40 level. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is still holding up, and the 50-week EMA is racing toward that as well.
Whether or not we get a bounce remains to be seen. There are a lot of concerns about oil. Perhaps there's some residual strength coming through from other Canadian dollar-related pairs. Ultimately, though, I still prefer the upside. I just don't see any momentum at the moment.
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