Weekly Forex Forecast - 8/16/2015

EUR/CHF

The EUR/CHF pair is one of the most interesting currency pairs to me at the moment because we have broken above the 1.08 level where there has been so much resistance previoulsy. However, by the time the markets closed on Friday we ended up forming a bit of a shooting star for the weekly candle. I don’t necessarily think that this is a negative sign though, I think this just simply says that the market is going to pull back a little bit before finding pressure to the upside. I recognize that the 1.10 level is a large, round, psychologically significant number and therefore should cause a little bit of trouble, but at the end of the day I still feel that buying is the only thing that can be done. Sooner or later, we are going back to the 1.20 handle.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair rose during the course of the week, slamming into the 1.12 handle. However, we did find a bit of resistance there so at this point in time I believe that we are going to continue to consolidate overall. I think that the 1.10 level is essentially “fair value” at the moment, so we will probably drift back towards that level. If we break down below there though, I think that the 1.08 level should offer plenty of support.

USD/JPY

Even though I’m very bullish of this pair, I recognize that forming a neutral candle at the 125 handle signifies that perhaps we are not quite ready to break out to the upside. With this, I think the pullbacks probably coming but I also recognize that there is a significant uptrend line just below. I feel that it’s only a matter time before we find buyers on any pullback, and therefore remain bullish. However, I think we are going to have to drop a little bit from here in order tobuild up the momentum necessary to finally break out.

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY pair broke higher during the course of the week, and even cleared the 138 handle. However, we did find a little bit of resistance there so I feel it’s going to pull back a little bit from here, build up momentum, and then go higher. Ultimately I think we are trying to work our way towards the 140 handle. It isn’t going to be an easy move though.