After a slow, steady grind lower in natural gas prices the last two weeks we finally saw an introduction of colder risks in the long-term weather forecasts that helped pick prices back up today.
Despite some selling into the settle, the entire strip logged gains on the day.
The result is a 10-month strip that looks quite similar to what we saw two months ago before significant cold in January drove prices higher, though H/J has since gone into contango.
These colder long-range trends were not much of a surprise to subscribers, as in our Friday Pre-Close Update we warned of warm medium-term trends and cold long-term trends.
In our Note of the Day to clients today we showed how these trends ended up verifying well, as heating demand should lag over the coming week and a half before it gets elevated into the first week of March.
This confirmed our text message alert to subscribers yesterday that upside would arrive for natural gas prices this week off the cold.
The Climate Prediction Center has been picking up on some of these colder trends in the long-range as well.
Before the CPC updated we published our holiday-delayed Weekly Natural Gas Update, which called in part for the further cold trends they confirmed. The report contains sections outlining natural gas storage dynamics/balance, current weather expectations, expected weather model trends, expected seasonal forecast trends, and our latest natural gas technical analysis. Below is one slide from our technical section, where we look at seasonality, physical prices, and the broader energy complex.
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