After a couple of "up" days at the end of last week, natural gas prices declined for the second day in a row this week, with the prompt month November contract settling back under the $2.30 level today.
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Prices initially were slightly higher early this morning, as the overnight weather models gained some forecast demand. Here, you can see the forecast demand profile from those overnight runs compared to 24 hours earlier:
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One thing that sticks out is that even with the gain in demand, it remains rather unimpressive overall. We also are finally seeing cooler weather in the South, contributing to weaker daily cash prices.
This worked out well, as prompt month prices moved as low as $2.266, but did close off those intra-day lows.
The midday weather models also gave back some of their overnight demand gains, which we had mentioned as a risk as well. Here is the 12-16 day pattern from the overnight GFS Ensemble:
The midday run shifted warmer in this time frame:
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