Weaker Cash And Briefly Warmer Models Let April Gas Retrace

The April natural contract settled down around a percent and a half as overnight weather models moderated slightly and Henry Hub day-ahead cash prices plunged below $3. 

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After spiking over $4 to start the week Henry Hub day-ahead cash traded back under $3 today. 

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Such cash action was enough to depress the April contract relative to the rest of the futures curve. 

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Thus the April/May J/K spread took a large turn down on the day. 

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This fit our expectations well, as we turned our sentiment "Slightly Bearish" in our Morning Update due to bearish spreads, warmer overnight model trends, and other fundamentals we saw moving in a bearish direction.

Overnight models were not all that much warmer, but GWDD losses were allowed to let the front of the curve at least retrace recent gains. 

Then prices were able to bounce into the settle on colder afternoon weather model guidance, which the Climate Prediction Center showed in their Week 2 forecast probabilities as well.