The Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ has now broken back above the 30-week moving average after an impressive thrust off the bear market lows in mid-March. The percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average has surged to over 50 percent in the Nasdaq 100 which is something I discussed back in March as the market worked off its oversold condition.
I will be watching this index closely for how it reacts to the next pullback. If it can hold above 195 which is a resistance zone from 2019 that is bullish for the stock market. Or even more bullish would be if it holds the 30-week moving average on a pullback. If it fails at 195 then the bear case would be in play and the rally off the March lows could possibly have been a bear market rally.
Along with QQQ I’ll be watching to see how SPY acts as it approaches the 30-week moving average. As I’ve discussed in previous videos the best place to enter short positions is above the 30-week moving average in a bear market, but it’s also important to be open-minded and flexible in case the bear market is over and the market merely consolidates on the next pullback.
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