Well according to Marty Zweig and Ned Davis Research it might just be possible…
The buy and sell signals are based upon the Value Line Composite Geometric Index.
For the 30 year period 1965-1995, the 4% rule return gave 13.3% per year while the buy-and-hold return was 3.2% per year.
These are not my words but the research.However I have incorporated their work into my models and include moving averages.
Very simple rules
You compare this Friday’s closing price with recent weekly closes.
If there was a recent low, and this Friday’s close is 4% higher than that low, then you assume you’re at a market low and you Buy. If there was a recent high, and this Friday’s close is 4% lower than that high, then you assume you’re at a market high and you Sell.
Click on picture to enlarge
Click on picture to enlarge
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