USDJPY Hovering At Intervention Levels Ahead Of FOMC Decision

USDJPY has been trending higher since bottoming out near the 155.00 major psychological level in early May, with price staging a strong recovery to test the range resistance zone around the 160.00 level.

The pair is currently trading at 160.33, nudging above the ceiling and hinting that a bullish breakout could be in the works.

The range has been in play since April, with the 160.00 area capping gains on multiple occasions and keeping price contained within the consolidation zone. If bulls are able to sustain a close above this resistance, a measured move rally of roughly the same height as the range could follow, potentially pushing USD/JPY toward the 163.00 area or higher in the sessions ahead.

However, the range resistance at 160.00-160.50 could prove to be a tough nut to crack, possibly triggering a pullback to gather more bullish momentum before any clean breakout materializes. In this case, price could dip back toward the 159.00 area or deeper toward the 158.00 zone, which has acted as a reliable floor during the recent climb.

The 100 SMA has crossed above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside and that the climb is more likely to gain traction from here. Both indicators are sloping upward and could provide dynamic support on any dips, keeping the broader bullish bias intact.

Stochastic is hovering near the upper region but has recently pulled back from overbought levels, suggesting that a brief consolidation or minor dip could take place before buyers make another push. A turn back higher from the midpoint would signal that bulls are ready to take another crack at the range ceiling.

RSI has also eased from elevated territory and has room to recover before reaching the overbought zone, leaving the door open for another leg higher. A sustained climb in the oscillator back toward the 60–70 area would align with a fresh bullish push and a potential breakout above the 160.00 resistance, though the upcoming FOMC decision could be the real test.