In the European session, the USD/CHF price is trading just around daily highs, roughly in the range of 0.9175-85 as the USD remains firm.
Tuesday’s trading saw a decline in the pair following the previous day’s rally of nearly 100 pips from the 0.9100 area. There was some selling near the 0.9200 level in response to the weak movement of the US dollar. Despite this, the downtrend is still constrained by strong market sentiment, undermining the Swiss franc’s role as a safe haven.
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Globally, the number of COVID-19 cases has steadily increased. Yet, investors remain optimistic that the Omicron option may end up being less severe than expected and unlikely to reverse the economic recovery. In addition to the recent sharp rise in equity markets, the Fed’s limited expectations of a tailwind for US Treasury yields contributed to this trend. As a result, support is expected to be provided to the US dollar and limit losses in the USD/CHF pair due to a combination of factors.
Meanwhile, the stock market fully reflected the first rate hike by May and two more by the end of 2022. As a result, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose to 1.6420% for the first time since Monday, November 24. This should help revitalize demand for the dollar in the near term and add to the positive outlook for the USD/CHF pair. However, investors seem reluctant to bet aggressively ahead of a major event/data risk this week.
On Wednesday, the Fed will publish the minutes of its December meeting. Investors will also be guided by key US macroeconomic data, due to be released at the beginning of the month. The week begins with the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job data in Tuesday’s North American morning session.
The ADP report and the ISM Services PMI will be released on Thursday. On Friday, the focus will be on the monthly US labor market report, known as the NFP. The USD/CHF exchange rate will get a new directional impetus due to this. Therefore, it is prudent to wait for subsequent strong purchases before concluding that the pair has bottomed out.
USD/CHF Price Technical Analysis: Limited Downside
The USD/CHF maintains a positive outlook as the price holds above the 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 4-hour chart. However, the pair remains capped by the 200-period SMA. The price is consolidating gains below the 0.9200 area. Hene, it is prudent to watch for a meaningful breakout to find a trading opportunity.
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