The US dollar continues to be very noisy in general, and with the speech coming from Kevin Warsh on Friday, this isn’t much of a surprise. With this, it looks like we are on the precipice of making some decisions.
USD/CHF
The US dollar continues to be very noisy in general, and that does make a certain amount of sense considering that the Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will be giving a speech during the Jackson Hole Symposium that could give us a little bit of a heads-up as to how the interest rates in America will end up playing out. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to be choppy and noisy because you're looking at the carry trade to the upside, but to the downside, the Swiss franc, of course, is a little bit of a safety currency.
And let's not forget that there's a lot of noise out there that continues to cause problems for traders. For example, the Persian Gulf, that in and of itself has been a bit of a headache.
Technical Support and Jackson Hole Catalyst
Overall, this is a market that will continue to look at the 200-day EMA underneath as potential support near the 0.80 level, and I'll be watching that level to see if I can add to an already long position in this market. If we can break above the 0.81 level, that would be very bullish, but I think really at this point in time, most of what we're seeing here is a market that doesn't really know what to do ahead of that speech.
We had a strong session on Wednesday, and we've taken back about half of that, so I think that shows a little bit of hesitation. We're just grinding away looking for the next catalyst, which very well could come tomorrow afternoon in the United States.
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