USD/CHF continues to follow the bullish scenario as expected, pushing to new highs after breaking out from the previous fourth-wave consolidation. This breakout confirmed that the corrective phase was likely complete and that the pair resumed higher within the next impulsive move.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current structure suggests that USD/CHF is progressing within the fifth wave of a larger bullish impulse, which itself belongs to the extension of the higher-degree red wave three. In a typical five-wave impulse, waves one, three, and five represent the main directional moves, while waves two and four are corrective phases that provide temporary pauses before the trend continues.
The strongest part of an impulse is usually wave three, where momentum expands and the trend becomes more visible. After a wave three extension, the final wave five often pushes toward new highs but can show signs of slowing momentum as it approaches completion. This is where traders need to start monitoring potential exhaustion signals and upcoming corrective structures.
For USD/CHF, there is still room for further upside before a meaningful reversal becomes likely. Based on our projections, the next potential resistance area comes around 0.8200, with a possible extension toward 0.8280. These levels are supported by several technical measurements, including the triangle breakout target and the potential equality between black wave one and black wave five.
However, reaching these targets does not necessarily mean that a larger bearish reversal must immediately follow. Once the current fifth wave completes, the market should eventually enter a corrective phase, as every completed impulse is typically followed by an ABC correction.
When this pullback appears, it could initially be interpreted as a larger trend reversal, but it may only represent another fourth-wave correction within the broader bullish structure. Ideally, USD/CHF could find support around the previous black wave four area near 0.8060, where buyers may attempt to stabilize the pair before another potential move higher.
For now, the bullish trend remains intact while USD/CHF continues to hold above key support levels. The focus remains on the 0.8200–0.8280 resistance zone, where we will be watching for signs of a potential slowdown and the next corrective opportunity.
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