USD Bears Are Back Into The Game

The complete counting of the Italian general election vote showed that the center-right coalition won 260 seats in the lower house (out of 630) and the Five Star Movement gained 221 seats, while the center-left got 112 seat. This makes it challenging to form a new government.

Yesterday, House Speaker Paul Ryan criticized President Donald Trump for his decision to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products. Ryan fears that the proposed trade measures might cause an escalation of tensions with US trade partners and ultimately backfire if this leads to a trade war. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer stated the Trump administration has proposed to exclude Canada and Mexico from tariffs if a “fair” revision of the Nafta is agreed upon.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the policy rate at 1.50% and signaled that monetary policy will remain on hold for some time due to weak wage growth and lack of inflationary pressure.

This is how our forex trading strategies look like:

EUR/USD

Trading strategy: Long

Open: 1.2330

Target: 1.2580

Stop-loss: 1.2210

Recommended size: 1.67 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: The EUR/USD broke above 30-day SMA at 1.2350, which is an important bullish signal. Our long opened at 1.2330 yesterday is in good shape now. We keep the strategy unchanged.

Previous position: Short opened at 1.2300, profit taken at 1.2180, earned: 120 pips, $328 per $10,000 in your account

GBP/USD

Trading strategy: Long

Open: 1.3780

Target: 1.4100

Stop-loss: 1.3640

Recommended size: 1.07 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: Thursday's bullish hammer and its confirmation on Friday was a pretty bullish signal. We stay long.

Previous position: Short opened at 1.3930. Profit taken at 1.3770, earned: 160 pips, $301 per $10,000 in your account

 USD/JPY

Trading strategy: Short

Open: 106.20

Target: 104.20

Stop-loss: 107.20

Recommended size: 1.58 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: The USD/JPY recovered above 106.00, as expected and the recovery was capped by the 106.48 Fibonacci level, 23.6% retrace of ther 110.48 to 105.24 fall. We have got short at 106.20 today.

Previous position: Short opened at 107.80. Profit taken at 107.40, earned: 40 pips, $53 per $10,000 in your account

 USD/CAD

Trading strategy: Await signals

Open: -

Target: -

Stop-loss: -

Recommended size: -

Short analysis: Market strains eased after the US administration proposed to exempt Canada and Mexico from the envisaged import tariffs if the Nafta is renegotiated and the USD/CAD rally was capped by the psychological barrier of 1.2300. We stay cautious here.

Previous position: Short opened at 1.2820. Stop-loss hit at 1.2930, lost: 110 pips, $150 per $10,000 in your account

 AUD/USD

Trading strategy: Buy

Open: 0.7805

Target: -

Stop-loss: 0.7705

Recommended size: 2.00 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: We took profit on our AUD/USD short at 0.7785 today. Dips below 0.7743, 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.7500-0.8136 rise were short lived and the market shrugged off weaker economic outlook delivered by the RBA. This means that bulls are coming back to the game. We have placed a bid at 0.7805.

Previous position: Short opened at 0.7845. Profit taken at 0.7785, earned: 60 pips, $180 per $10,000 in your account

 EUR/GBP

Trading strategy: Buy

Open: 0.8880

Target: -

Stop-loss: 0.8815

Recommended size: 1.12 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: We keep our bid unchanged as some volatility is likely this week and a temporary dip below 0.8900 cannot be excluded.

Previous position: Short opened at 0.8790. Stop-loss hit 0.8830, lost: 40 pips, -$100 pips per $10,000 in your account