US Wholesale Inflation Rises Less Than Expected In October

• US producer prices rose 0.3% in October, below economists' expectations.

• Annual headline PPI accelerated to 6.5%, its highest level since November 2022.

• Markets have assigned a 100% probability to a Fed rate hike in December.

US wholesale prices increased less than expected in October, offering some relief on the inflation front, although a sharp acceleration in annual producer prices and persistent cost pressures could complicate the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision.

The producer price index (PPI), which measures the prices domestic producers receive for goods and services before they reach consumers, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% during the month, below the 0.4% increase expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday.

Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also increased 0.3%, in line with expectations.

However, the annual headline PPI rate accelerated to 6.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous reading and marking its highest level since November 2022.

Goods prices drive annual producer inflation higher

The details of the report showed that inflationary pressures remained broad across several parts of the economy.

Prices for final demand goods increased 0.5% in October, although more than 60% of the advance came from goods excluding food and energy.

Prices in the latter category actually declined 0.1% during the month.

On an annual basis, the goods index jumped 10.2%, marking its biggest 12-month increase since October 2022.

Final demand services prices rose 0.2%, with much of the increase linked to transportation and warehousing services.

Truck transportation of freight recorded a 3.9% increase.

Meanwhile, prices for intermediate processed goods surged 14.6% from October 2025, the largest annual increase since July 2022.

Intermediate services prices climbed 6.9%, their biggest gain since November 2022.

A measure of producer prices that excludes food, energy and trade services increased 0.5% during October, pointing to continued cost pressures beyond volatile commodity markets.

Persistent inflation complicates Fed's December decision

The report comes ahead of the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting on December 8-9, with policymakers facing mounting questions over how to balance inflation risks against the broader economic outlook.

Earlier this week, the BLS reported that consumer inflation was hotter than expected in October.

Headline and core consumer prices both increased 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, exceeding forecasts by 0.1 percentage point.

The latest readings suggest that inflation remains some distance from the Fed's 2% target.

Markets have been pricing in a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's December 9 meeting as almost certain, with traders assigning a 100% probability to an increase, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The odds of a 25-basis-point hike stand at 89.7%, while the probability of a larger 50-basis-point increase is 10.3%.

Policymakers are also concerned that higher fuel prices linked to the Iran war and President Donald Trump's tariffs could be spreading through the economy.

While the Fed might ordinarily look through temporary supply-driven price increases, their broadening impact could indicate that inflation is becoming more entrenched.

Stock futures extended their gains following the PPI release, while Treasury yields were mixed as investors assessed the implications for monetary policy.