US Session Bullet Report – EURUSD Over 1.1300, US Data To Determine Direction

EURUSD over 1.1300, US data to determine direction

There was a global sell off post the Asian Indices collapse, with DAX trading -2% at one point before recovering and erasing most of the day’s losses. Overall, it is a confusing market as each geographical region is concerned about their own issues, breaking correlations with the USD. For example, in Australia, the AUDUSD is trading lower due to the Chinese interventions, while the EURUSD is surging higher.

GOLD’s surge lost some momentum however the support of 1148 served as a level for new buyers to jump in for bargain hunting. Important note though is that the reason for most of the rise of the EUR is position unwinding (people who were holding short positions are now taking profits – rather than renewed demand for EUR). This could indicate that the EURUSD rise could be short lived since there is no fundamental change in investors view that the FED raising rates (only the timing). Next level to watch is 1.1337 (200 Day Moving Average). 13:45 GMT we have the US manufacturing time, a strong reading could reverse most of the day’s losses for the USD.

Trading quote of the day:

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria”
John Templeton

Green lines are resistance, Red lines are support

EURUSD
Pivot: 1.119
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.119 with targets @ 1.131 & 1.137 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.119 look for further downside with 1.115 & 1.11 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.

GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.5655
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.5655 with targets @ 1.5725 & 1.577 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.5655 look for further downside with 1.563 & 1.56 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.

AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.728
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.728 with targets @ 0.736 & 0.739 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.728 look for further downside with 0.7255 & 0.723 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.

USDJPY 
Pivot: 123.3
Likely scenario: Short positions below 123.3 with targets @ 122.35 & 122 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 123.3 look for further upside with 123.65 & 124 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.

USDCAD
Pivot: 1.313
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.313 with targets @ 1.3055 & 1.302 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.313 look for further upside with 1.3175 & 1.3215 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1.313 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

USDCHF
Pivot: 0.963
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.963 with targets @ 0.951 & 0.9475 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.963 look for further upside with 0.967 & 0.9725 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.

GOLD
Pivot: 1149
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1149 with targets @ 1162 & 1168.3 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1149 look for further downside with 1142 & 1132 as targets.
Comment: A support base at 1149 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

OIL
Pivot: 41.8
Likely scenario: Short positions below 41.8 with targets @ 40.4 & 39.95 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 41.8 look for further upside with 42.6 & 43.2 as targets.
Comment: As long as 41.8 is resistance, likely decline to 40.4.

DAX
Pivot: 10650
Likely scenario: Short positions below 10650 with targets @ 10130 & 10000 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 10650 look for further upside with 10910 & 11090 as targets.
Comment: As long as 10650 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.