Despite existing-home sales unexpected surge in January, new home sales are expected to drop modestly (-1.2% MoM) jn January (after a huge unexpected surge in December), but sales actually tumbled considerably more (down 4.5% MoM) to 801k SAAR (from 839k SAAR).
Source: Bloomberg
However, on a year-over-year basis, new home sales are still notably lower.
Was the surge in December just demand pulled forward as mortgage rates started to accelerate?
Source: Bloomberg
Median home prices in January were just shy of the all-time high at $423,300 (+13.4% YoY)... (and average new home price - $496,900 - did indeed hit a new all-time high)
Bloomberg reports that while underlying demand for new homes remains solid, fueled in part by record-low inventory in the resale market, the highest mortgage rates since mid-2019 represent a headwind. Higher materials costs are also contributing to housing inflation and sidelining many prospective buyers.
Homebuilder confidence is ebbing a little but remains nothing relative to the collapse in 'real' homebuyer confidence (as opposed to yield-seeking investment buyers)...
Source: Bloomberg
Will Powell's rate-hikes make that situation any better?
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