The best quarter in history – following the worst one. Gross Domestic Product jumped by an annualized rate of 33.1%, above expectations. That included a surge of 40.7% in personal consumption, a core component of the economy. Business spending is up over 23% after crashing 27%.
The impressive statistics come after the crash. The US economy crashed by 31.4% annualized in the second quarter, a result of the covid-related lockdowns. It came on top of a 5% stumble in the first three months of the year, when the disease was only beginning to lift its head.
In quarterly terms, the world’s largest economy fell by -10.1% in the first half of the year and now rose by 7.4%. That means that there is still some 3% to reach pre-pandemic levels – and more to reach the levels of activity had the economy continued growing at its moderate 2-2.5% pace.
The chart below provides a graphic representation of the situation:
(Click on image to enlarge)
Moreover, markets have moved on from the three months that ended in September to October and the colder months ahead. European countries are entering new forms of lockdowns as COVID-19 cases rage and figures are rising also in the US. Worries about a second American wave are already hurting markets and they may continue.
Things are moving fast in the coronavirus era, making even the quickly-released first release of GDP a lagging indicator.
Overall, the best quarter in history gives few reasons to be cheerful.
The data is released just five days ahead of the all-important US elections. President Donald Trump will likely tout the outstanding figure, despite the fact that it only represents a rebound from a crash – and not a V-shaped recovery. Will it impact voters? Around 75 million Americans – 55.5% of the total vote count in 2016, so there is less room for impact.
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