US Economy: Jobs Data Signals Ongoing Resilience

Investors are betting on the ongoing resilience of the US economy, which was confirmed by recent economic data. For one thing, while initial unemployment claims for the week ended April 18 ticked up modestly, they remain well below their long-run historical average AND their 2025 average

In fact, they’re hovering near some of the lowest levels of the past year – fully consistent with an economic environment in which layoff activity is historically subdued.

The same story holds for continuing claims, which we track as a proxy for the difficulty unemployed workers face in finding new employment. Continuing claims edged up slightly during the week ended April 18, but also remain below their 2025 average.

The four-week moving average continues to hover near its lowest level since June 2024, too. That is an encouraging signal. Not only are layoffs low, but those who do lose their jobs are finding new ones more easily. We interpret this as evidence that hiring activity may be starting to improve.