US Dollar May Rebound if G20 Meeting Ends Without Incident

UK retail sales data headlines an otherwise quiet European data docket. Core receipts growth is expected to slow to 3.9 percent on-year in January, the weakest in seven months. UK news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to forecasts in recent weeks however, opening the door for an upside surprise.

That may offer little solace to the British Pound however. A rosier picture of retail activity seems insufficient to dislodge the BOE from its perch at the dovish end of the policy spectrum. With that in mind, the figures may pass without much fanfare.

Comments from the on-going G20 foreign ministers’ summit in Bonn, Germany likewise warrant attention. This is the first such outing for newly minted Secretary of State Tillerson and traders are understandably worried that he might channel the combative campaign rhetoric of his boss Donald Trump.

The first day of the sit-down seemingly passed without incident. The absence of a bombshell by midday on Wall Street may soothe jittery investors, triggering an unwinding of moves inspired by geopolitical unrest fears. That may return Fed rate hike speculation to the forefront, boosting the US Dollar.

The Japanese Yen corrected broadly lower in overnight trade having outperformed against its G10 FX counterparts yesterday. The New Zealand Dollar proved weakest on the session however, weighed down by disappointing economic data.

Asia Session

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European Session

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