US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Remains Below 102.00, Nine-Day EMA

The US Dollar Index may find initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of 102.03.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 58.17 indicates positive bullish momentum.
The immediate support lies at the ascending channel bottom around 101.70.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is inching lower after opening at a bullish gap and remaining in positive territory near 102.00 during the Asian hours on Monday.

The near-term bias stays constructive as the US Dollar Index holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while probing the nine-day EMA as immediate resistance. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.17 leans bullish without being overbought, suggesting ongoing positive momentum, while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index stabilizing around 127.51 hints that Fed-related expectations are no longer aggressively driving fresh upside.

Additionally, the technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the dollar index is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, signaling ongoing bullish momentum.

The US Dollar Index could test the initial barrier at the nine-day EMA of 102.03. A break above the short-term price average would strengthen the bullish bias and support the dollar index to test the 18-month high of 102.94, reached on October 14, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending wedge at 103.80.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index may find immediate support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 101.70, followed by the 50-day EMA of 100.91. Further declines would expose the five-month low of 98.56, which was recorded on August 20.

Dollar bulls turn cautious as focus shifts to sustainability of USD gains

Economists at DBS Group Research suggest that momentum behind the greenback may be nearing an inflection point. According to DBS, “the coming week could see a shift from extending the USD’s recent rally to reassessing its sustainability,” as investors weigh how durable the latest bout of Dollar strength is likely to be.