US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Holds Above 102.00 After Rising Above Nine-Day EMA

• United States Dollar Index may rise toward the 18-month high of 102.94.

• The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 60 indicates constructive momentum without reaching overbought levels.

• The immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 101.93.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground for the third successive day and trading near 102.20 during the European hours on Tuesday.

The near-term bias is bullish as DXY holds above both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reinforcing an underlying bid in the broader uptrend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60 suggests constructive, but not overbought, momentum, while the stable FXS Fed Sentiment Index near 127.5 hints that policy expectations remain broadly supportive of the dollar’s advance.

The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the dollar index is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, signaling an ongoing bullish bias. The DXY may explore the region around the 18-month high of 102.94, reached on October 14, followed by the upper boundary of the channel at 104.50.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index may find its immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 101.93, followed by lower boundary of the ascending channel around 101.70. Further support lies at the 50-day EMA of 101.11. A break below the medium-term price average would put downward pressure on the dollar index to navigate the region around the five-month low of 98.56, which was recorded on August 20.

US Dollar Index: Daily Chart

Dollar support builds as markets refocus on Fed and energy backdrop

Strategists at ING observe that the Dollar has started the week on a firmer footing, noting that it "has found good support early this week, as stabilising AI-related sentiment has allowed markets to reconnect with the broader supportive backdrop of a hawkish Federal Reserve and high energy prices." They argue that this combination of steadier risk appetite and persistent policy and commodity tailwinds is helping to underpin the US currency at the start of the week.