Uncertainty and Risk Measures

If Russia were to invade Ukraine, all bets are off on macro and financial forecasts. Given the recent briefing, here’s what some measures of uncertainty and risk look like:

Figure 1: VIX (blue, left scale), VIX as of 2:30 pm ET (light blue square), Economic Policy Uncertainty index, 7 day centered moving average (red, right scale). Source: CBOE via FRED, policyuncertainty.com, accessed 2/11/2022.