Two Central Bank Meetings And The Non‑Farm Payrolls Labor Market Report Are Expected

The US stock indices ended Friday’s trading lower, as semiconductor stocks corrected after the recent rally, and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh strengthened market expectations of an imminent interest‑rate hike. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.02% (weekly +0.56%). The S&P500 Index (US500) declined by 0.25% (weekly +0.63%). The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed Friday in the red at 0.70% (weekly +1.16%). The main trigger for markets was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The head of the US central bank stated that there is no sustained slowdown in core inflation and promised an uncompromising fight against rising prices until the 2% target is reached, which prompted traders to more actively price in a rate hike at the next meeting.

This week, the key event for global markets will be the release of the US labor market report on Friday (Non-Farm Payrolls), where 45-58 thousand new jobs are expected after July’s decline, as well as an increase in unemployment to 4.2% and an acceleration in wage growth. This may negatively affect the US dollar, but on the other hand, gold and stock indices may receive upward momentum amid a reduced probability of a September rate hike. The US macro calendar also includes ISM Business Activity Indices, JOLTS job‑opening data, and the ADP report.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will hold a monetary‑policy meeting, where the benchmark rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.25%, accompanied by local employment data on Friday and trade and business‑activity data on Thursday. Last Friday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened significantly, falling to 1.39 CAD per USD from a three‑month high (1.376). More hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh regarding core inflation (the PCE Index) strengthened market expectations of a possible US rate hike as early as September. And this is despite strong Canadian GDP data – in the second quarter, Canada’s economy showed its strongest growth in nearly two years, rising by 3.3% annualized.

In Europe, by the end of Friday, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.77% (weekly +1.83%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.98% (weekly -0.95%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.81% (weekly +0.32%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session higher at 0.29% (weekly +0.07%).

The main event for European markets this week will be preliminary inflation data, where annual consumer‑price growth in the Eurozone is predicted to accelerate to 3.2% in August, the highest level in nearly three years. A similar trend is expected in Germany, with growth to 2.9%, and in Italy, where price pressure will intensify even further amid already strong reports from France and Spain. The macroeconomic block will also include revised PMI Business‑Activity Indices for key regional countries, July manufacturing‑order data from Germany, and an unchanged Eurozone unemployment rate at 6.3%. Additional investor attention will be drawn to UK retail‑sales and housing‑market reports.

Crude oil prices (WTI) rose above $85 per barrel on Monday, opening the week with gains following direct US military intervention in the Middle East. US armed forces carried out strikes on Iranian missile installations that were preparing to mine the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. This military action was the first by Washington in more than a month. Despite ongoing tensions and the absence of a full peace agreement, between 6 and 8 million barrels of oil continue to be transported daily through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Although this figure remains below pre‑crisis volumes of 22-24 million bpd, it is significantly above the critical March low of 5-6 million bpd. Improved throughput capacity of the strategic route and the planned transport corridor between Iran and Oman have reduced fears of a supply shortage.

In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.41% (weekly +0.65%), China’s FTSE China 50 closed down 0.50% (weekly +0.45%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.08% (weekly -0.76%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher at 0.60% (weekly -0.01%).

This week in Asia‑Pacific, investor focus will be on China’s August PMI Indices to assess the state of the world’s second‑largest economy, as well as a broad macroeconomic block in Japan covering industrial production, retail sales, and household spending. Regional regulators will also hold important monetary‑policy meetings: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to raise the base rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, while Bank Negara Malaysia is prognosed to leave its rate unchanged at 2.75%. Additional market impact will come from the release of September inflation data and manufacturing PMI Indices across the spectrum of emerging markets in Southeast Asia and East Asia.

• S&P 500 (US500) 7,711.76 -19.23 (-0.25%)

• Dow Jones (US30) 53,559.99 -9.45 (-0.02%)

• DAX (DE40) 26,569.99 +202.75 (+0.77%)

• FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,748.16 +31.72 (+0.29%)

• USD Index 98.68 +0.52 (+0.52%)

News feed for: 2026.08.31

• Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)

• China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)

• China Non Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)

• German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)