Trump Tweets "All Is Well" After Iran Fires Missiles At Two US Airbases In Iraq

Summary:

• President Trump has tweeted that "All is well!"

"Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq.

Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good!

We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far!

I will be making a statement tomorrow morning."

• Iranian foreign minister Javid Zarif has tweeted:

"Iran took and concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens and senior officials were launched."

• Iran has launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles against multiple bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq, an have threatened "more crushing responses" if Washington carried out further strikes.

• Initially, nine rockets hit the sprawling Ain al-Asad airbase in the country's west, the largest of the Iraqi military compounds where foreign troops are based.The attack came in three waves just after midnight, AFP reported.

• Iran swiftly claimed responsibility for the attack, with state TV saying it had launched "tens of missiles" on the base.

• Iranian sources are claiming that the operation has a name: 'Operation Martyr Suileimani'. Iran's airforce has reportedly been deployed.

• Iraqi PMF announced the start of military operation "Overwhelming Response."

• No confirmed details on injured/casualties - "working on initial battle damage assessments." According to social media sources, the Pentagon has said that the Iranian missile attack resulted in casualties among Iraqis only

• President Trump "has been briefed" is "monitoring the situation closely and consulting with his national security team," and despite initial reports from CNN he was set to address the nation, the press secretary has denied that Trump will address the nation tonight.

• The FAA has imposed restrictions for civilian flights over the Persian Gulf.

• ISNA reports that Iran has sent a letter to The United Nations Security Council saying it's not after war.

• Markets are turmoiling: Safe-haven assets are soaring (bonds, bitcoin, and gold), Oil prices are jumping, and Stocks are getting slammed

Rabobank's Michael Every has an early hot-take on the situation:

At this stage, with news hazy and facts on the ground absent, there appear two realistic scenarios.

One is that this attack is theatre to placate the large crowds who were so recently on Iran’s streets.

The alternative is that Iran has genuinely decided to test Trump by also upping the ante.

The only way to tell is if there are US casualties.

If we get images of dead and injured US soldiers, then the worst-case scenarios begin to open up. If no real damage has been done by these missiles, but Tehran gets to show the crowds it responded, then more positive possibilities are still available. We will find out shortly – but breaking news is that there are ‘only’ Iraqi casualties, according to its Ministry of Defence. It remains to be seen if that is a red line for Trump, or is the kind of collateral damage he was expecting after taking out former IRGC head Soleimani.

Given that this move from Iran appears totally out of keeping with their usual strategic acumen, either the loss of Soleimani has meant a total loss of talent, and/or self-control, or this is indeed a token level of revenge.

I will *cautiously* stick to that interpretation for now.

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Update: President Trump has tweeted:

All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 8, 2020

And Iranian foreign minister Javid Zarif has also tweeted:

Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched.

We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.

— Javad Zarif (@JZarif) January 8, 2020

Stock futures have erased almost the entire drop...

And crude has tumbled back...

As if it never happened.

***

Update: Between President Trump's silence (no planned address to the nation) and reports that Iran has told the UN Security Council that "it does not seek war," futures markets have pared losses...

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Update: According to NBC's Ali Arouzi, Iran has said that if there is no retaliation from America for these latest attacks then they will stop attacking. But if America attacks then their response "will be crushing and wide spread."

Iran is saying that if there is no retaliation from America for these latest attacks then they will stop attacking. But if America attacks then their response will be crushing and wide spread. #iran #soleimani #war

— Ali Arouzi (@aliarouzi) January 8, 2020

Update: The FAA has banned all civilian flights over Iran, Iraq, the Persian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman "due to heightened military activities" and the "potential for miscalculation or misidentification" according to AP.

* * *

Update: Iran has warned that if there is retaliation for the two waves of attacks they launched their 3rd wave will destroy Dubai and Haifa.

Iran is warning that if there is retaliation for the two waves of attacks they launched their 3rd wave will destroy Dubai and Haifa.#iran #Soleimani #war

— Ali Arouzi (@aliarouzi) January 8, 2020