Trump Considers 'Winding Down' Iran Operations. Great, But What Does That Mean?

Let’s discuss three possibilities.

U.S. Is Considering ‘Winding Down’ Iran Operations

The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Is Considering ‘Winding Down’ Iran Operations

President Trump said the U.S. is considering “winding down” its military operation in Iran, adding that other countries would need to police the Strait of Hormuz.
Earlier Friday, the president said he could “have dialogue” with Iranian leaders, but added, “I don’t want to do a cease-fire…You don’t do a cease-fire when you’re literally obliterating the other side.” The Pentagon is sending three warships and thousands of additional Marines to the Middle East, in the second deployment of Marines to the region in the past week.

Close to Meeting Objectives

Truth Social: We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran: (1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them. (2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base. (3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry. (4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place. (5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others. The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

We are so close we need to send more troops and battleships.

Trump Pauses Sanctions on Some Iranian Oil

Lie of the Day

Who Wouldn’t Want Stuff like This to Wind Down?

Q&A on Winding Down

Q: Is sending thousands more troops and three more battleships to the Mideast consistent with winding down?
A: No, but Trump didn’t say he was winding down, only that he is considering winding down.

Q: What does considering mean?
A: Nothing, especially from Trump

Q: Would Trump like an off-ramp?
A: Yes, that’s highly likely. But Trump also wants something for nothing every time. That makes a quick off-ramp unlikely.

Q: Trump does not want a cease-fire, but he wants a dialog. Does that make sense?
A: Yes and no. Iran says it does not want a cease-fire except on its terms and the same applies to Trump. In that sense, they both do and don’t want a cease-fire. The don’t win.

Q: Would a dialog go anywhere?
A: Obviously not.

Q: What are Trump’s goals?
A: He expected a quick victory but that didn’t happen. It’s still not clear what the goals are now. His statements keep changing and they are often contradictory.

Q: What does winding down even mean?
A: I don’t know, you don’t know, and perhaps not even Trump knows. He just says stuff without thinking.

Q: Take a shot at it.
A: OK.

Three Possibilities on Trump’s Angle

Trump wants out of the mess he made by turning it over on Europe and China. Actually, that’s a given, but that’s not necessarily what Trump meant by winding down. Regardless, Europe and China want no part of the Mess Trump made.
Winding down means nothing at all. Trump just says stuff. He might even deny he said winding down.
Trump is saying anything that he thinks may get the price of oil down. But if oil dropped, even if he did mean winding down in some fashion, Trump would likely want something else.

My guess is that it’s some combination of all three, with an emphasis on three.

Certainly the market would like things to wind down. But winding down is so inconsistent with everything else Trump is doing and saying.

If the bond market doesn’t believe winding down, why should I?

It’s $200 billion today, how much tomorrow?

March 20, 2026: Trump Sends Thousands More Troops and 3 More Warships to the Middle East

One day after saying ‘We’re Not Putting Troops Anywhere’ comes this announcement.

March 20, 2026: The Odds of at Least One Fed Rate Hike by October Surge to 25 Percent

What Happened?
Fed Governor Christopher Waller changed his tune from supporting rate cuts.
Trump is sending more troops and warships to the Middle East. This has rattled the markets.

Trump will say anything to calm down the bond market. That’s at least part of his message.