This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
- Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 3 months.
- Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months.
- Trading against very strong counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
- Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.
Let’s look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast December 2019
For the month of December, we forecast that the best trade will be long USD/JPY. The performance to date is as follows:
Weekly Forecast December 8
Last week, we made no weekly forecast as there were no very strong countertrend movements. This week we again make no forecast.
The Forex market has become more active, with 26% of the important currency pairs and crosses moving by more than 1% in value over the past week. Volatility is likely to be considerably higher over the next week.
Last week was dominated by relative strength in the New Zealand Dollar and British Pound, and relative weakness in the U.S. Dollar.
You can view the results of our previous monthly forecasts here.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
We teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that should be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week, which might result in either reversals or breakouts:
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