It was a slow trading day in natural gas today as the newly-prompt July contract traded in just a 3.9-cent range.
This came as the strip declined about equally through most of the winter months.
The only spread which moved more than a tick or so was the G9/H9 February/March spread, which ticked decently wider on the day.
Today in our Seasonal Trader Report we looked along the natural gas strip to see how it has changed in the past couple of months. We compared yesterday's settle to March 13th, where we noticed pricing was mostly the same through H9 before expectations of further production increases that will not be sopped up by additional demand drove the rest of the strip lower.
The report combines 5-month GWDD forecasts with our current reading of balance in the natural gas market and spread price action, seeing how risk appears skewed on a seasonal basis. Included in the discussion are the latest climate models as well, like the below American CFSv2 surface temperature anomaly forecast for June/July/August.
The report similarly includes our new injection season forecast, where we take our reading of weather-adjusted balance out through injection season to predict how much gas we look set to walk into the winter withdrawal season with. This forecast model will be updated following tomorrow's EIA print, where an injection around to slightly larger than the 5-year average is likely to be announced.
Our Afternoon Update this afternoon and Morning Update tomorrow break down expected price action around the print, including our forecast and what that says about the current supply/demand balance in the natural gas market. As always, this is overlaid with our latest weather model analysis and Gas Weighted Degree Day (GWDD) forecasts.
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