Trade Deficit Upside Surprise By $18bn

Goods trade deficit larger than before the election. So much for tariffs reducing goods imports relative to pre tariff.

Figure 1: Goods trade balance, BoP basis (black), Census basis (red), Bloomberg consensus (blue +), all in mn.$ s.a. Source: BEA via FRED, Census, and author’s calculations.

Goods imports are rising.

Figure 2: Goods imports (black),  BoP basis through April, Census basis thereafter, all in mn.$ s.a. Source: BEA via FRED, Census, and author’s calculations.

Census basis is about 2bn more than BoP basis, in May and June, so a small difference.