Trade Deficit Surges, Imports Up 3.7 Percent, Exports Down 2.9 Percent

Trade deficit jumps 17.2 percent. Wow.

The Advance Economic Indicators Report for July was a total disaster.

Advance International Trade in Goods

• The international trade deficit was $118.8 billion in July, up $17.4 billion from $101.4 billion in June.

• Exports of goods for July were $199.4 billion, $6.0 billion less than June exports.

• Imports of goods for July were $318.2 billion, $11.4 billion more than June imports.

Advance Wholesale Inventories

• Wholesale inventories for July, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $959.1 billion, up 1.3 percent (±0.2 percent) from June 2026, and were up 5.7 percent (±1.2 percent) from July 2025.

• The May 2026 to June 2026 percentage change was revised from the preliminary estimate of up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent) to up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent).

Advance Retail Inventories

• Retail inventories for July, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $838.5 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.2 percent) from June 2026, and were up 3.8 percent (±0.7 percent) from July 2025.

• The May 2026 to June 2026 percentage change was unrevised from the preliminary estimate of down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent).

Goods Exports and Imports

Liberation Day Flashbacks

November 19, 2025: How Trump’s Liberation Day Tariffs Work in Practice

Liberation day shut down a big North Carolina sawmill when China retaliated.

March 31, 2025: Trump’s Tariff Liberation Day Ceremonies Start Two Days Early With Confusing Statements

Across-the-board tariffs of up to 20% are back on the table ahead of April 2 “Liberation Day”.

March 24, 2025: Trump Postpones “Liberation Day” to Focus on the “Dirty 15”

Damn. I was all geared up for liberation.

March 21, 2025: Trump’s Tax Hike ‘Liberation Day’ Day Begins April 2. Expect to Suffer

The pre-shocks have begun. But the big shock is on deck.

May 28, 2025: Court of International Trade Strikes Down Trump’s Liberation Day Tariffs

This is an enormous ruling. 5 Reasons the court is correct.

November 16, 2025 What Are the Odds the Supreme Court Rules Against Trump on Tariffs?

The Supreme Court decision is not random. I discuss a framework.

On August 27, before the en banc ruling let’s recap how I sized up the Reciprocal Tariff Case.

Hypothetical Vote Count

The three liberal justices are certain to vote against Trump. That means we need two more.

Pair 1: Barrett and Roberts  
Pair 2: Barrett and Gorsuch
Pair 3: Gorsuch and Roberts

If I am correct, I think Barrett is already on board. I can’t help but think Roberts will go with the majority, and perhaps decide. 

If it’s pair 2, add Roberts for a 6-3 decision. The bigger the majority, the more cover for all of them.

February 20, 2026: Supreme Court Strikes Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs In 6-3 Vote (I Told You So)

Forgive me for bragging, but I got every justice correct.

That recap was fun.

Q: But did that Supreme Court ruling stop Trump?
A: No.

Trump is back at it with tariffs on equally ridiculous rationale.

It’s possible some of those cases die in the courts as well. But the stupidest tariffs on aluminum and steel are highly likely to stick.

Feeling “Liberated” Yet?

Excluding the tariff front running in advance of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, this is the largest trade deficit in history.

Q: So what do we have for Trump’s tariffs?
A: Higher prices, an even bigger trade deficit, and a preposterous and damaging trade war with Canada that will further increase inflation.

For further discussion, please see Who Will Win the Trade War Between the US and Canada?

We know the answer already, China. Click above for details.
Feeling liberated?