Trade Between U.S. And China Stabilizing At Reduced Levels

Trade between the U.S. and China continued showing signs of overall improvement. Trade data reported by the U.S. Census Bureau for August 2026 indicates a small month-over-month decline, but significant year-over-year gains.

The combined value of all goods exchanged between the U.S. and China declined $0.9 billion (or 2.4%) from $36.8 billion in July to $35.9 billion in August 2026. However, that figure was up $2.5 billion (or 7.3%) from August 2025's $33.4 billion.

Meanwhile, the trailing twelve month average of the trade between the U.S. and China rose to $31.6 billion in August 2026, up $1.3 billion (or 4.2%) over its April 2026 low. Trade between the two nations has been slowly increasing in the period since the one-year anniversary of President Trump's 2 April 2025 "Liberation Day" global tariff announcement.

The following chart presents the monthly data for the combined value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China and its trailing twelve month average for the period from January 2017 through August 2026.

The trailing twelve month average of the combined value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China is about $19.3 billion below our counterfactual projection of what the level of trade between the two nations would have likely been in the absence of the global tariff war. Over the last three months, it has roughly paralleled it, indicating trade between the U.S. and China is stabilizing at a much reduced level.

Looking forward to September 2026, the Port of Los Angeles reported it processed a record high number of containers, indicating U.S. imports of Chinese-produced goods increased from August's level. This outcome was expected as importers of goods from China were seeking to accelerate the delivery of many products ahead of the U.S. Christmas shopping season to avoid tariff increases.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900). U.S. Trade in Goods with China, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Nominal Figures, Total Census Basis. [Online database]. Accessed 6 October 2026.