Today's Trading Plan: Nasdaq Breaking

Technical Outlook:

• Another last minute save by SPX to rally price from negative territory to positive in the final 30 minutes.
• This is becoming the norm of late to spend the day in a weakened state only to rally in the final minutes. 
• Massive head and shoulders pattern forming on the SPX 30 minute chart. It confirms on a break of 2077. 
• SPX is wedged between the 5 and 10-day moving averages. You may see a downside crossover today as they are only 2 points apart. 
• Apple (AAPL) reported earnings last night after the bell and missed expectations. As a result the Nasdaq continues to weaken. 
• Nasdaq is by far the weakest of all the indices right now as it starting to roll over on the charts and now trading below the 20-day moving average. A break below 4808 would establish a lower low for the chart. 
• Volume on SPY increased yesterday but still well below recent averages. 
• Advancers have been incredibly strong of late despite weak or minimal moves from the market as a whole. This is a rare phenomenon. 
• Today the FOMC Statement comes out at 2pm eastern. Don't fall for the initial move that often results in a market head-fake. 
• SPX has closed above the previous week's lows for 10 straight weeks. The record is 13 weeks - as you can see, we are in some rare air here, and the likelihood that it persists isn't very favorable. 
• A break below 2073 on SPX would end the streak. 
• It is very important to be aware of the potential for a strong pullback here and to manage your long position risk accordingly. 
• April has been bullish in nine of the last ten years. 
• Yellen's dovish outlook as it pertains to rate hikes has been, in large part, the reason for the massive rally off of the February lows. 

My Trades:

• Did not add any new swing trades yesterday. 
• Covered USO at 10.82 yesterday for a 0.9% loss. 
• Currently 10% Short / 90% Cash
• Will look to add 1-2 new short positions today if the market seeks to push lower. Will flip to the long side if price action can break out of the current trading range. 

Chart for SPX: