Today's Trading Plan: Friends With The Trend Again

SPX continues its epic rise yesterday, now up 160+ points in the last ten trading sessions. trend is your friend. VIX prior to this week, had dropped 8 out of 9 trading sessions down to key support in the lower 13's.

Technical Outlook:

  • SPX continues its epic rise yesterday, now up 160+ points in the last ten trading sessions.
  • VIX prior to this week, had dropped 8 out of 9 trading sessions down to key support in the lower 13's. Last two days the VIX has refused to drop lower despite the market rallying hard during these two days. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) finally established a higher-high, rising 13.5% to 78%. 
  • Strong increase in volume yesterday on SPY, and coming in at recent averages. 
  • SPX exhibited a great deal of follow through yesterday following Monday's new higher-highs. 
  • There is a great deal of bullishness to this market right now despite the prevalent amount of worry. It has been over two years since the market has actually seen a legitimate rally and so it wouldn't be surprising to see this market continue its current trend higher as shorts are forced to face the new reality of the market. 
  • In the very near term, the market is getting stretched, so some profit taking could be in store, though I don't expect it to be enough to drag prices significantly lower. 
  • One catalyst that the bears could have in their favor is if Q2 earnings come up short. 
  • Dow Jones Industrial joined the record highs parade by closing at new record highs yesterday. The Russell and Nasdaq still have a significant way to go before doing so themselves.
  • Oil bounced hard yesterday. 
  • At this point, I would track the market as it continues to make new highs against the 5-day moving average. There may be some short squeezing still as the shorts have their stops run above all-time highs and it will provide a good short-term reading on the strength of the market. 
  • Mondday marked the fourth consecutive year that SPX make a new all-time high, going back to 2013. 
  • At this point, it can be said that the market is climbing the "Wall-of-Worry".
  • Market is assuming that rate hikes are pretty much off the table for all of 2016. 

My Trades:

  • Added one new long swing position to the portfolio yesterday. 
  • Did not close out any swing-trades yesterday. 
  • Will look to add 1-2 new long positions today. 
  • Currently 40% Long / 60% Cash

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 7-13-16

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