Technical Outlook:
- SPX continues its epic rise yesterday, now up 160+ points in the last ten trading sessions.
- VIX prior to this week, had dropped 8 out of 9 trading sessions down to key support in the lower 13's. Last two days the VIX has refused to drop lower despite the market rallying hard during these two days.
- T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) finally established a higher-high, rising 13.5% to 78%.
- Strong increase in volume yesterday on SPY, and coming in at recent averages.
- SPX exhibited a great deal of follow through yesterday following Monday's new higher-highs.
- There is a great deal of bullishness to this market right now despite the prevalent amount of worry. It has been over two years since the market has actually seen a legitimate rally and so it wouldn't be surprising to see this market continue its current trend higher as shorts are forced to face the new reality of the market.
- In the very near term, the market is getting stretched, so some profit taking could be in store, though I don't expect it to be enough to drag prices significantly lower.
- One catalyst that the bears could have in their favor is if Q2 earnings come up short.
- Dow Jones Industrial joined the record highs parade by closing at new record highs yesterday. The Russell and Nasdaq still have a significant way to go before doing so themselves.
- Oil bounced hard yesterday.
- At this point, I would track the market as it continues to make new highs against the 5-day moving average. There may be some short squeezing still as the shorts have their stops run above all-time highs and it will provide a good short-term reading on the strength of the market.
- Mondday marked the fourth consecutive year that SPX make a new all-time high, going back to 2013.
- At this point, it can be said that the market is climbing the "Wall-of-Worry".
- Market is assuming that rate hikes are pretty much off the table for all of 2016.
My Trades:
- Added one new long swing position to the portfolio yesterday.
- Did not close out any swing-trades yesterday.
- Will look to add 1-2 new long positions today.
- Currently 40% Long / 60% Cash
Chart for SPX:





Comments
Log in or sign up to join the conversation.