Today's Trading Plan: Europe Still In Play

SPX snapped the four-day winning streak. The final hour of trading came to the rescue of the bulls, by erasing 1/3 of the losses. The bounce took place at the 5 & 20-day moving average.

Technical Outlook:

  • SPX snapped the four-day winning streak. The final hour of trading came to the rescue of the bulls, by erasing 1/3 of the losses.
  • The bounce took place at the 5 & 20-day moving average.
  • Futures are down heading into the open and look to open up at/near yesterday's lows. 
  • Volume on SPY increased yesterday and slightly above average volume readings. 
  • Massive convergence of moving averages - the 5, 10, 20 and 50 moving averages are all within 8 points of each other on SPX. 
  • Argument could be made that a bearish kicker was formed on SPY yesterday. 
  • For the bulls: need to get back above Friday's closing price. 
  • For the bears: need to break below the double top confirmation level currently at 2030. 
  • VIX stumped at the resistance area around the 16.40's. 
  • Lots of resistance in the 2110's for SPX 30 minute chart. Also, lower-lows and lower-highs in place. 
  • In general Q3 doesn't ten to be a very good quarter historically for stocks. In recent past that has also been the case. Last August, there was an extreme sell-off. 
  • Dip buyers aren't dead yet. They finally came to bat in the final hour yesterday. 
  • Market is assuming that rate hikes are pretty much off the table for all of 2016. 

My Trades:

  • Added one new short position to the portfolio yesterday. 
  • Did not close out any swing-trades yesterday. 
  • Will look to add 1-2 new trades today. 
  • Best risk/reward currently is to the downside. 
  • Currently 30% Short / 70% Cash

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 7-6-16

 

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