Technical Outlook:
- S&P 500 (SPX) continues to trade in an up/down/up/down pattern for the past 10 trading sessions.
- This has only happened eleven other times since the 1920's.
- SPX hit 13 times late last year.
- Volume on SPY increased slightly yesterday for a second straight day and almost closed at recent averages.
- Oil continues to drop - as it is slightly down again this morning, and broke below the Fibonacci 50% retracement level. The big question becomes as it tracks lower towards the February lows, is when does this start negatively affecting stocks like we saw back in December/January.
- SPX is trading in a very tight range for the past 10 trading sessions and unable to break out of its current trading range. Even with the FOMC Statement yesterday, the impact was minimal.
- Nasdaq (COMP) and Russell (RUT) continue to trend higher and break out of their current ranges while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) continues to show signs of rolling over.
- SPX trading range continues to come in incredibly choppy. Two price levels to watch that will signify further weakness in the market is 2059 and 2055.
- Interestingly enough over the past month you are finally starting to see a bend in the 200-day moving average to the upside. For much of the year it has been flat.
- Very bearish candles on the VIX continue to be formed right at the critical 13 price point.
- Facebook (FB) came in strong last night on its earnings report but has pulled back some from its initial highs.
- At this point, and with the election ahead, I'd expect the market to keep rallying higher. I don't expect there to be a rate hike between now and the election. To do so would impact the market and thereby the election. I don't think the Fed wants that, particularly since Trump has indicated that he would replace Yellen.
My Trades:
- Sold LOCK at $16.49 yesterday for a 0.9% profit.
- I did not add any new swing-trades yesterday.
- May add 1-2 new swing-trades to the portfolio today.
- Will consider hedging the portfolio as well with a short position.
- Currently 40% Long / 60% Cash
Chart for SPX:





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