This Week: Central Bank Meetings Take Center Stage

• The RBNZ goes first. Its decision lands at 01:00 London time on Wednesday 28 October. Swaps price about an 80% chance of a hike from 2.75% to 3%.

• Thursday packs two big US releases into one minute. The first estimate of Q3 GDP and September's PCE inflation both come out at 12:30 London time.

• Three central banks meet in the same week. The Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan are all expected to hold, while markets still price a possible Fed hike in December.

This week, markets will be filled with a series of central bank meetings around the world, which will announce their interest rate policy.

The Central Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to raise its interest rate by 25 basis points at its meeting this week. In addition, a series of important US economic data will also be released, including third-quarter PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures.

Beyond the data, ongoing geopolitical risk continue to support oil prices while markets may become jittery ahead of the US midterm elections in roughly one week.

Wednesday, October 28th: Fed decision

No move is expected after September’s hike. The real event is Warsh’s press conference where traders will listen to any hint of a December hike, which markets price at close to 90%. The US500 is forecast to move as much as 0.6% higher or 0.9% lower in the six hours after the decision.

Wednesday, October 28th: Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision

The RBNZ is expected to raise its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3%. Governor Anna Breman holds a press conference following the decision. A rate hike may lend support to the NZDUSD, which has gained roughly 1% month-to-date around resistance at 0.5700.

Wednesday, October 28th: Microsoft and Alphabet Earnings

Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close on Wednesday. The critical question is whether the AI spending is paying off. A strong set of earnings may boost sentiment toward tech stocks while a weak set of earnings could trigger a selloff across US equities.

Thursday, October 29th: US PCE and GDP combo

Q3 growth and September PCE, the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge, land together the day after the Fed speaks. A hot PCE could drag the US500 lower as hike bets jump while a weak set of reports and cooler than expected PCE may cool Fed hike expectations.