THINK Ahead: US Jobs Report And Eurozone Inflation Data

By James Knightley and Bert Colijn of ING Think

Economic and Financial Analysis • Sep 25, 2026 at 9:00 PM EDT

September's US jobs report and Eurozone inflation data will signal future central bank interest rate trajectories. A projected 100k addition in US payrolls keeps an October hike in play as core inflation lingers near 2.4% in Europe.

Next week's US jobs report will be closely watched for signals on the Fed's October rate decision, while eurozone inflation data will provide an update on underlying price pressures

THINK Ahead in developed markets

United States (James Knightley)

Jobs Report (Fri): Financial markets have moved to price an October Federal Reserve interest rate hike as being more likely than not. There are two key reports that will largely determine what the Fed decides to do, with the first – the September jobs report – due on Friday. The August report was much stronger than expected after a subdued run. Given that the low-hire, low-fire narrative remains in place, we expect a downward revision to that August number, with September coming in at around 100k jobs added. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%. This outcome will keep an October rate hike in play. The next key data release will be September inflation, due on 14 October.

Eurozone (Bert Colijn)

Inflation (Fri): Eurozone inflation continues to move mainly on energy prices at the moment. But with core inflation still at the same level as it was before the Middle East war started – 2.4% in both February and August – eyes will once again be on whether signs of second-round effects are kicking in.

Key events in developed markets

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