U.S. markets head into a packed week with inflation data, Fed drama, and a fresh batch of earnings from AI infrastructure companies all on the calendar.
The S&P 500 closed Friday at record highs, gaining 0.6% on the day. For the week, the Nasdaq rose 5.2%, the S&P 500 added 3.6%, and the Dow gained 3%. It was the best week for all three indexes since April.
The catalyst was Friday’s jobs report, which eased investor fears about near-term rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
Inflation Data Takes Center Stage
The July Consumer Price Index reading arrives Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect both the overall and core figures to rise 0.2%.
Source: Forex Factory
CPI dipped in June, but conditions have changed since then. Fighting in the Middle East has disrupted oil shipments through key shipping lanes, pushing energy prices higher.
The Producer Price Index, which tracks wholesale inflation, follows on Thursday. It dipped in June after surging in May. Rising wholesale costs can signal that consumer prices will follow.
Bank of America (BAC) economist Stephen Juneau said last month’s CPI was likely a “one-off” and that a reading in line with expectations would strengthen the case for a September rate hike.
Friday closes the week with retail sales data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Consumer spending edged up 0.2% in June, though the savings rate hit a four-year low.
Fed Independence Back in Focus
The week ended with two developments that put the Fed’s independence back in the spotlight.
The White House sent a letter saying the president was “considering” removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The move follows a Supreme Court opinion from late June.
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett also commented publicly that potential Fed Chair candidate Kevin Warsh and the president “talk about the economy all the time.” That kind of regular communication between a president and a Fed official is unusual and raises questions about central bank independence.
Bond markets will be watching closely. A rise in bond yields last week already reflected what some observers called a credibility concern at the Fed.
AI Earnings Offer a Reality Check
Three AI infrastructure companies report this week. Nebius Group is up 122% year to date. CoreWeave has gained 25%. Cerebras Systems has fallen 35% since its IPO.
The mixed performance shows that AI spending enthusiasm does not lift every company equally. Earnings this week will offer a clearer picture of who is winning and who is not.
CoreWeave and Nebius both joined the Nasdaq 100 this summer, with Nvidia (NVDA) having invested in both. Cerebras beat expectations in its first quarterly report as a public company in June.
Super Micro Computer also reports Tuesday, after releasing preliminary numbers showing profit margin growth and a record order backlog.
Applied Materials (AMAT) reports Thursday, rounding out a key week for the semiconductor and AI hardware space.
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