The Wax Report - Week Ending 07/15/2016

The very poorly managed, energy leveraged Wax Ink Portfolio was up 2.2% for the week.

By comparison, the Dow was up 2.0%, the Nasdaq was up 1.5%, the S&P 500 was up 1.5%, the Russell 2000 was up 2.4%, and the Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, was down 4.0%.

Year to date, the Wax Ink portfolio is down 15.3% on a per share held basis, the Dow is up 6.3%, the Nasdaq is up 0.4%, the S&P 500 is up 5.8%, the Russell 2000 is up 6.1%, and the VIX is lower by 30.4%.

Portfolio Summary
The portfolio breakdown is roughly 55% cash, 45% equities, and 0% bonds. The current cash value on a per share basis is $28.94 and the current equity value on a per share basis is $23.45 making the average per share price $52.39. The average baseline valuation estimate of all equities currently held in the Wax Ink Portfolio is $30.92 and the average market valuation of all equities held in the Wax Ink Portfolio was $30.26, making the current portfolio growth factor (2.15%).

Hydrocarbon Prices
Two numbers often watched by oil traders are Crude Spread (Brent Crude less WTI Crude) as well as the Gulf Coast Crack Spread (two barrels of gasoline + one barrel of heating oil – three barrels of crude oil) / 3). These numbers are now apart of The Wax Report.

WTI Crude ended the week at $45.95, up 1.2%, while Brent Crude ended the week at $47.61, up 1.8%, creating a crude price spread of $1.66, a change of 23.0% for the week. Distillate RBOB Gasoline ended the week at $1.4.220, up 3.7%, and Heating Oil ended the week at $1.3974, down 1.1%, moving the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread to $13.43, up 5.4% for the week. Natural Gas ended the week at $2.76, down 2.1%.

Year to date WTI Crude is higher by 24.1%, Brent Crude is higher by 27.7%, Natural Gas is higher by 17.9%, RBOB Gasoline is higher by 11.9%, Heating Oil is higher by 24.1%, and the Gulf Coast 3:2:1 Crack Spread is lower by 6.2%.

Treasury and Bond Yields
The 5 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.08, up 17.4%, while the 10 Year Treasury ended the week at 1.51, up 12.7%. The 5 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 0.87, up 4.8%, and the 10 Year AAA Municipal Bond ended the week at 1.41, up 6.0%. Bringing up the rear, the 5 Year AAA Corporate closed the week at 0.55, down 50.9%, with the 10 Year AAA Corporate ending the week up 4.4% at 2.12.

Year to date the 5 Year Treasury is down 37.9%, the 10 Year Treasury is down 32.9%, the 5 Year AAA Muni is down 29.8%, the 10 year AAA Muni is down 34.1%, the 5 Year AAA Corporate is down 71.1%, and the 10 Year AAA Corporate is down 27.4%.

Baseline Valuation Estimates and Worksheets
Baseline Valuation Estimates are initial valuations which Accredited Investors, after completing their own due diligence, can either increase or decrease in accordance with their individual risk tolerance or investing philosophy.

Financial data used in the creation of each Baseline Valuation Estimate is the most recent SEC 10-K ANNUAL financial data as reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Archived worksheets may be downloaded by going to the Worksheets page at the site and selecting an industry which will move you to all of the worksheets I have updated for the selected industry.

Worksheets
Worksheets were either created or updated during the week for the following companies.

Amgen, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMGN) - FYE 12/2015

Woodward Governor Company (NYSE: WWD) - FYE 09/2015

Olin Corporation (NYSE: OLN) - FYE 12/2015

Baseline Valuation Estimates
Baseline valuation estimates are determined through fundamental analysis of the listed company's financial information. Because these valuations are never exact, what is presented here is a baseline valuation range.

Baseline valuation estimates were either created or updated during the week for the following companies:
Amgen, Inc. - $76-$81
Woodward Governor Company - $31-$41
Olin Corporation - $16-$19

Growth Only Valuation Estimates
Growth only valuations are determined utilizing current pricing levels, year over year earnings growth, dividend yield, the current PE ratio, and an earnings growth estimate. Because growth only valuations are EXTREMELY volatile, what is presented here is a single growth only valuation estimate.

Growth only valuation estimates were either created or updated during the week for the following companies:
Amgen, Inc. - $176
Woodward Governor Company - $61
Olin Corporation - $24

Have a great week.

Wax

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