The USD/RUB currency pair is currently trading at 64.0580. This currency pair has a 52-week trading range of 51.8333 on the low end and 85.9410 on the high-end. Over the past 3 months, the USD has performed marginally better with a -5.60% change. Over the past 1 month, the USD/RUB pair has weakened by 4.16%. The year-to-date return for this currency pair is -11.33%, which is reflective of the declines in the greenback that have been taking place.
There are several major concerns looming for the USD. Foremost among them is the US presidential election in which candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will be locking horns. Both contenders have unfavorable ratings with voters, but it is their trade policies that will likely put pressure on the USD, and all the currency pairs it is part of. The last time there was a trade dispute between the United States and Japan, the USD weakened by as much as 25% against the Japanese yen.
Now, currency traders and speculators are anxiously watching the markets for signs that another USD crash is imminent. While the Russian ruble does not specifically feature in the major tensions with currency speculators, the Japanese yen and the euro are high on the list. The political uncertainty currently brewing will likely cause the USD to weaken. The decision by the Federal Reserve Bank not to hike interest rates was good for gold, but bad for the greenback. There are however at least 2 rate hikes expected to take place in 2016, and these will act as a counterbalance to the political tensions weakening the USD.
What factors are driving the USD/RUB currency pair?
With the month of June coming to an end, the impact of the summer swing is in full effect. Markets typically react differently during summer months, with June associated with reduced speculative behavior in currency markets. Earlier in the month, the Russian ruble plunged to a 6-week low against the greenback, and the weakness in the ruble has been driven by several factors including the following:
- Russian manufacturing PMI data missed consensus forecasts when the HSBC manufacturing PMI measure for April plunged to 47.6 – a sure sign that the economy of Russia is declining. This marks the sixth month on the trot that the PMI data is negative.
- Russia has also placed strict travel restrictions on as many as 100 ranking European politicians. While this data release has not been officially confirmed, it is a negative sign. It indicates, if nothing else, that frosty relations remain between the European Union and the Russian Federation.
- Russian banks are now struggling to sell rubles and then invest in high yield assets. Now, the Russian Central Bank is prepared to allow the currency to weaken dramatically.
Major Economic Announcements for the US and Russia
US economic data indicates a slowdown is in effect. As such, a cautious approach to monetary policy will be adopted. This was revealed at a Senate Banking Committee meeting with Janet Yellen recently. The US GDP growth rate is currently at 0.8% with an unemployment rate of 4.7% and an inflation rate of just 1%. The government debt to GDP ratio is currently at 104%. The following economic announcements are expected this week in the US:
- US existing home sales for May on Wednesday, 22 June 2016.
- US new home sales from April on Thursday, 23 June 2016.
- US durable goods orders month on month for May on Friday, 24 June 2016.
In Russia, the following announcements are expected:
- On Monday, 27 June 2016 GDP figures year-on-year for May will be released with a consensus forecast of -0.5%. Also on Monday, the business confidence figure for June will be announced.
- On 1 July 2016, the Markit Manufacturing PMI data for June will be announced.
The USD/RUB pair has consolidated in a tight range between 64 and 67 since April 2016. Geopolitical shocks could derail this progress, and the Brexit referendum is one such decision that could move the needle.
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