The RBA Minutes Showed A Hawkish Stance From The Regulator

Trading on US stock exchanges on Monday ended with a pronounced sectoral rotation out of semiconductors and hardware into traditional economy segments and software. By the end of the day on Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.38%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.06%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed Monday in the red at 0.44%. Chipmaker stocks faced a frontal sell‑off. Micron’s 3.9% drop was driven by concerns over expanding production capacity and price competition from Chinese memory producer CXMT. Nvidia’s decline (-1.3%) highlighted persistent investor nervousness around supply chain resilience and high valuations in the AI hardware sector ahead of ASML and TSMC earnings. Rising oil prices are amplifying fears of a potential “hawkish” surprise in Core CPI, keeping the US sovereign bond market tense and limiting risk appetite in highly valued tech assets.

In Europe, by the end of the day on Monday, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.76%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.38%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.33%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the trading session higher by 0.99%. The dynamics of French 10‑year bonds (OAT) with yields near 4.86% (after recently testing levels above 5.0% – the highest since 2002) reflect a structural crisis of investor confidence in France’s sovereign debt. Although the local pullback in oil prices slightly reduced fears of aggressive ECB tightening, the spread between 10‑year OATs and German Bunds remains around 130-150 bps, signaling persistent high precision risk. The French government’s plan to reduce the budget deficit to 5% of GDP by 2027 requires strict consolidation of €43-54 billion through cuts in social spending and tax surcharges. However, a fragmented parliament and the approaching 2027 presidential election make approval of the revenue and expenditure parts of the budget – now entering discussions this week – extremely unlikely without major concessions.

The oil market clearly demonstrated how fragile hopes for an “energy ceasefire” have been. Attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport, and tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz instantly returned the geopolitical risk premium to prices, fully offsetting the positive effect of expected Russian diesel supplies. Rising oil directly translates into more expensive gasoline and jet fuel, increasing the likelihood that the upcoming US CPI report will show a strong “second‑round shock.” This keeps 10‑year Treasury yields elevated and reinforces market expectations of an additional 25‑bp Fed rate hike before year‑end with a probability above 80%.

In Asia on Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.02%, China’s FTSE China 50 closed lower by 0.31%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.25%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher yesterday by 0.76%.

The updated IMF World Economic Outlook report highlights an extremely fragile balance in the global financial system. A slight upward revision of the global GDP prediction for 2026 to 3.1% reflects a strong impulse from corporate investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure, but this factor is increasingly offset by stagflationary pressure due to the surge in oil prices. Overall, the global economic trajectory remains slower compared to last year’s 3.5%. The IMF maintained its US growth estimate at 2.3%, lowered China’s expectation to 4.5%, and slightly raised projections for the Eurozone and Japan to 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.

The published minutes of the September meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) confirm the persistence of one of the most hawkish stances among central banks of developed economies. The rate hike at the September meeting to 4.60% was accompanied by a clear warning that inflation risks are materializing, leaving the door open for another rate increase in 2026.

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• Dow Jones (US30) 51,850.55 +195.60 (+0.38%)

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• FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,656.28 +104.23 (+0.99%)

• USD Index 102.58 +0.36 (+0.36%)

News feed for: 2026.10.13

• Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)

• Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 03:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)

• German Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)

• US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)